Three Card Monte Market

There are so many moving parts to the current market, with aggressive daily rotations and dispersion, that it can drive one mad to try to time every near-term top and bottom across the board. At times it really does seem like a street hustle of three card monte. Overall, I still view the underperformance of semis and some mega cap tech as a looming bearish tell of what is to come, though bulls are certainly giving it all they have got in trying to sustain every last rotation possible. 

Just today, we have semiconductors, a bunch of large cap tech, as well as some commodities taking a pounding all the while crypto and small caps surge. 

Among commodities, however, natural gas is a standout on the long side with supply concerns on top of the AI angle. 

As UNG (the natty gas ETF) gaps up around 10%, it is worth looking at some natty gas-related stocks. 

Minnetonka, Minnesota-based Northern Oil & Gas, below on the daily chart, is one such play. With earnings out of the way we have the stock tightly flagging above all moving averages since the earnings pop. LNG is another hot name, though that has been running away higher and is currently extended. 

Overall, the CPI print this Wednesday may suddenly matter more than any recent CPI report in recent quarters are inflation seems to be creeping back up (See: Truflation since September).

A hot print, which I now believe to be likely, should force the market to reassess valuations across the board, especially in the historically expensive hot growth stocks.