The Perfect Recipe to Limp Along

The FOMC has come and gone, with Powell soothing stagflation fears for the time being. Options expiration for the month and quarter is tomorrow. March Madness is underway as we speak. And Lord knows who is still, ahem, dehydrated from Saint Patrick's Day on Monday. 

All of the above factors should make the price action today, thus far, not too surprising at all. Markets are drifting, oscillating, all as volume is leaving town.

An early rally after an overnight fade in the futures gave way to another sharp fade, only to see buyers try to step back in over the last hour or so.  Simply put, with about two hours left in the session, there is not much cooking.

That said, the bond market is fading in a spot where bond bulls probably needed to see confirmation. Rates on the 10-Year Note, for example, dipped below 4.2% but are now back above that area, as TLT (ETF for Treasury prices, inverse to rates) fade well off session highs and is almost flipping red. 

Overall, the key risk here is that too many folks, even bears, are acquiescing to the scenario of a multi-week rally. I am seeing plenty of fancy upside price targets for the market. But lest we forget how much technical damage has been sustained of late: Every single major index and leading sector remains below their respective 200-day moving averages, a long-term warning sign indeed. Even holdouts like PLTR are not immune from fade, as that stock is struggling well off its morning highs at its 50-day moving average. 

If this is a new bear market not unlike, say, 1973, then rallies should continue to be drifting, frustrating, at times briefly explosive, but ultimately doomed.