Waiting to Exhale

Netflix has not tested its 20-day moving average (a fairly short-term reference point) since mid-April. The QQQ has not since tested its own 20-day since April 23rd. And momentum darlings like HOOD are still chugging higher today. 

That said, a retail favorite like HIMS is staging a notable downside reversal off a big opening move higher, currently in the red as I write this. 

Overall, though, retail traders have been on a brazen buying spree since April. Despite the seemingly can't-go-down or can't-stay-down market vibe, seasonality is turning more decisively bearish just as sentiment reaches complacency again. Treasuries cannot hold much of a bid, and the risk of another spike in rates remains an overlooked scenario by most, at least in terms of their positioning and risk models. 

However, it is worth drawing a clear distinction between overbought and crowded tech/growth stocks versus downtrodden commodity names which have been, in most cases, dead money for over a decade and are only now waking up. 

Mosaic, below on the daily chart, also has been on a tear since April. 

Unlike tech/growth darlings, though, the fertilizer play has been trading sideways, overall, since its 2008 bear market lows--You may want to take a moment and reflect on that. You are talking about seventeen years, give or take, of skipping along a series of lows while everyone was piling into mega cap tech and Lord know what else in terms of the hot flavor of the day, be like AMC GME HTZ FUBO PLTR and the like. 

And now commodity stocks are showing signs of life while retail toys with its old tech/growth favorites. I see institutional smart money slowly piling into commodity names with strong hands. I will be looking for Mosaic to finally exhale for a better long entry soon enough. 

But the larger point is that the footprints are there of a 1970s rotation into commodities and, slowly, away from the mega cap techs--Just have a gander at AAPL still below all daily chart moving averages or GOOGL red today.