Subtle Detective Work

On the surface it seems like another low volume session drifting slightly higher for the major indices, even with some major American cities like Los Angeles facing various disruptions from protests, riots, and looting. 

From my perch the market seems far more focused with the ongoing trade talks with China and looming inflation data tomorrow and Thursday (CPI, then PPI) regarding future Fed Meeting views about eventually cutting rates again. As it stands now, it is a near-certainty (99.9% on FedWatch) that The Fed will stand pat with rates one week from tomorrow. 

Still, when one digs a bit deeper we see rotation. 

Specifically, the hottest of the hot names of late like NFLX PLTR HIMS (first daily chart, below) and HOOD are all red as I write this, while oil and the oil ETFS (OIH XLE XOP) are finally outperforming and up anywhere from 2-4% as I write this. Furthermore, a defensive (and still under-owned) name like AT&T (second daily chart, below) is coiled up tightly and threatening a breakout now just on the daily but also on a multi-decade basis as well, above a well-defined resistance trend-line dating back to its 1999 peak. 

Overall, this market continues to bide its time as both trade war, geopolitical tensions around the world, and inflation issues all sort themselves out--We have not yet seen definitive headlines that deterioration is occurring on all of these fronts, which suggests just how bullish sentiment truly is among players here. That claim is supported by recent evidence that U.S. household stock ownership as a percentage of total assets once again hit an all-time high. You can say what you want about this tape, but it is not a wall-of-worry setup with that type of data.