Bubble for Thee but Not for Me

To state the obvious, precious metals and miners have now become grossly overbought and extended in the short-term.

In a uniquely rich development we have folks who have been tech/AI bulls declaring how absurdly overbought gold is and how ripe it is for either a crash or major top from here. 

While I certainly agree, as noted with Members, that the metals and miners will likely see a shakeout soon enough, the notion that they are anywhere near a long-term top seems like a reach. 

First and foremost, unlike the bloated mega cap tech/AI names, it is only now that folks are even noticing that gold and the metals/miners exist, let alone deciding to actually own them. You have people like Ken Griffin acknowledging that gold should be one part of a portfolio for investors, which seems like a far cry from the sort of mania and euphoric speculative fervor seen in AI plays. 

Beyond that, one must choose where the focus should be. Do we solely rely on daily charts to declare a long-term top for gold? Or do we take into account the long-term, multi-year chart? 

On the GDXJ (ETF for junior precious miners) quarterly, below, we can choose to focus on the short-term overbought conditions (easily rectified in a few days, by the way) or we can choose to focus on a twelve-year base bottom breakout after a period of prior, sustained, bear market action.