Keeping it Fair and Balanced on Netflix

Netflix is gapping down hard after earnings, as the tech portion of earnings season is officially underway. 

That said, with a market cap less than $500 billion as I write this, bulls are correct to counter that NFLX is not truly a mega market leader like it has been in previous cycles. Simply put, NFLX is not in the same league as AAPL GOOGL MSFT NVDA both in terms of market cap and status in the tech investing world. 

At the same time, the quarterly chart of Netflix, updated below, is still instructive to track as a litmus test for some of the most absurd multi-year steep uptrends out there. Unless this time is different, history tells us that these abnormally steep trends unravel violently, particularly after a protracted melt-up like this has been. 

Thus, while it is fair to criticize bears cherry-picking the NFLX selloff and extrapolating it to the entire market, it is also fair to acknowledge that this move since 2022 has reached a point where its demise ought not be dismissed due to Netflix not being in the trillion dollar market cap club. 

Elsewhere, the gold ETF is finally tagging its 20-day moving average for the first time in two months. Buyers seem initially somewhat interested. I am looking for stabilization into the FOMC nest week.