A Bull Market to Die For

The melt-up in the semis (AMD a big reason why today) and QQQ is becoming more extreme by the day, leaving countless open gaps below as the AI-related charts go vertical and leave virtually everything other stock and sector in the dust (for the time being).

Putting to one side the constant hopeful headlines on Iran for a peace deal, beyond the jobs report on Friday the next big event I see is the full Senate vote regarding Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair, which should take place next week. If confirmed, Warsh takes over on May 15th. As previously noted, markets have a long and extensive history of putting new Fed Chairs to the test, which would coincide at an interesting juncture this time around given the blow-off vertical moves on the S&P, Nasdaq, and semis. 

An asset class that I have been more in tune with this year, however, has been the precious metals and their derivative miners. Back in the dead of the winter I sold out a few trading longs (I still retain my long-term positions in several miners alongside physical gold coins) and noted with Members that I expected either a multi-month or multi-quarter consolidation/correction. 

Even with the Iran War breaking out into March, it still seemed like gold and the precious complex had run in front of the news, as gold often catches a whiff of big events beforehand. Thus, while many gold bugs have been flabbergasted as the lack of response from gold this spring, we continue to look for the consolidation/correction to play out some more, perhaps into the heart of summer. 

To be clear, I remain wildly bullish on the precious complex on a multi-year basis--This is simply a long overdue correction to lull many back to sleep before the next leg higher against the backdrop of structural tailwinds which are unlikely to abate, especially given our current political and central banking class.

August/September tend to have bullish seasonality for the precious complex. So, one could envision a scenario where we drift along until then before gold finishes the year strongly and sets up a potent 2027.