I Knew It! I'm Surrounded By...

In front of tomorrow's SpaceX IPO (to be traded under ticker symbol, SPCX) President Trump came out earlier this afternoon with yet another market-moving Truth Social post where he cancelled this evening's military strikes against Iran as he said peace discussions moved to the highest levels of Iranian leadership. The indices surged on this news as oil sold off hard. Even though it has since been reported that Iran has not yet approved any text for any agreement with the U.S., this market still seem hell-bent on disregarding any news to the contrary of what Trump reports as facts. 

Incidentally (or perhaps not), just before the Trump post we saw stocks fading noticeably, with the Nasdaq actually threatening to turn red on the day as ORCL remains sharply lower after earnings last evening and the Magnificent 7 stocks show relative weakness. 

However, when you have AI chip monsters like SNDK up 12% as I write this, it simply illuminates where bears need to inflict selling if they are going to make a dent in this market. 

Overall, the "sloppy sideways" or violently indecisive price action we have been tracking over the last week or so continues today, with sharp moves in both directions at the drop of a hat. The Trump "tape bombs" only exacerbate this circumstance as we head into one of the most highly-anticipated IPOs in years tomorrow. 

Separately, the GLD ETF, below on the daily chart, finally breached its 200-day moving average (yellow line) for the first time since November 2023. It was a heckuva run but this is a long overdue test during this correction. The good news for gold bugs is that sentiment is flipping to be quite dour, which to me means we are closer to an actual bottom. I remain wildly bullish on a long-term basis. But I am still eyeing late-summer as the next bullish seasonal window for the precious metals and miners.