Let's Get This Out of the Red

After forcing myself to be patient for several months now, I am warming up to the idea that most of the commodity complex has been washed out lower, be it oil, gold, silver, and ags. Specifically, the levered longs from last month in oil are likely at the point where they are mumbling to themselves as they walk to their cars in the casino parking lot. As of this afternoon, therefore, I am now long crude oil via the USO ETF (with a stop around $99) and looking for considerable upside under the theory that the reality of supply/demand reasserts itself this summer. 

It truly seems as though "nothing makes sense" in markets right now, given that we have the multitude of trillions in the Magnificent 7 stocks getting decimated below the MAGS ETF 200-day moving average today.

And, yet, Micron and its buddies in the memory/AI space are waking up every morning and doing the Irish jig, catapulting higher seemingly on a daily basis with no humble pie to be eaten for levered longs not just here but also in gambling dens like South Korea. 

That said, I urge you to read this piece about Lee Robinson and his views on risks right now. The August 2008 analogy, in particular, is noteworthy.