Pump Up the Jam

President Trump is out with various, explicit "Trump Pumps" today, be with DELL stock, the market at-large by launching his "Trump Accounts," and ringing the opening bell this morning to accompany some wildly optimistic remarks about future prices of equities.

At this point, an old techno song may as well be the theme song for this White House. 

Still, the latest pump takes the semiconductors back up to the sector ETF's breached 20-day moving average (orange line on first daily chart, below for SMH) from last Thursday. The semis as a group have actually been, more or less, sideways since Memorial Day, as hard as that is to believe. And the Nasdaq Composite is sideways since early-May. Indeed, all of the back and forth, gaps, fades, pumps, and dumps have amounted to an emotional yet indecisive tape after the Q2 melt-up in AI stocks. 

My view is that, as quaint as it sounds, keying off the SMH 20-day moving average test is an excellent short-term battleground to see if we get some surprise weakness in the seasonally strong month of July. In addition to DELL, Trump also pumped Micron by name. One has to wonder if that could be a sign of the rally slowly turning over if MU fails to sustain a rally from here and sells the Trump Pump. 

Elsewhere, the soft ags are rallying hard today, under the radar as usual. On the second weekly chart, below, the Soybeans Fund is gapping up hard near multi-year highs off an unbelievably important prior key level. Wheat and corn are also rallying off support. I highly doubt the Iran War is over.

Beyond that, the supply issues in key commodities and chemicals, beyond oil, remains overlooked by just about everyone. But that SOYB chart means business with this gap up after the spring pullback. And if you do not think soybeans are critical part of the American food supply chain, think again.