Slow Summer Wind Days

With Labor Day falling a bit later than usual this year, we still have roughly three and half week left of summer trading. And it may as well be three months, with the way this market is trading.

By now, the "dispersion" trade is fairly obvious, with day-to-day rotations propping up the indices despite some heavy drawdowns in the AI/Mag7 names this summer. Today, the market is overlooking CBRS CSCO earnings selloffs in favor of the cool PPI print, as a September FOMC rate hike seems to be much less probable, but still on the table. 

Software is actually outpacing the semis, with the SMH pinned up against its declining 50-day moving average. This result of this test should heavily influence the Nasdaq for its next directional move, given the weightings of the chips. We also have AMAT reporting tonight, with NVDA not reporting for just under two weeks. 

Finally, Treasuries are well off their session highs on the TLT ETF which, again, begs the question of just how much the long end of the curve truly believes inflation is cooling. 

On the actionable front, oil tankers are putting in a strong session. We will review the group in-depth with Members tonight in my usual full video analysis.