Badlands

Under the cover of the focus on NVDA today we have the commercial real estate stocks in the IYR ETF (below on the updated daily chart) threatening a breakdown. For a good while now we have profiled the uniquely tedious nature of the IYR price action, between ignoring sticky high rates for what is typically a rate-sensitive sector (and debt laden at that), to the rolling sideways grind for quarters on end. 

But as you can see, the potential for a 50-day moving average breakdown into September is now a more viable view. And for the old school types who often argue that the REITS leads the SPY, this represents a clear negative divergence. 

Elsewhere, within the Magnificent 7 names the weakness in AMZN GOOGL META is also being overlooked due to NVDA, with MRVL reporting tonight. 

Overall, the next and perhaps final major summer event is Warsh's Jackson Hole speech tomorrow morning--I doubt that he gives any concrete answers about a September hike.

But it is worth reiterating that the market is still in the process of breaking in a new Fed Chair and could test him more strenuously.