Are You Scared of Chicks with Wicks?

We are in an odd spot seasonally, with summer feeling increasingly "over," despite the fact that today's action very much smacks of summer-like trading with a full week to go before Labor Day weekend (and, of course, summer will not officially end for a few more weeks on September 22nd). 

That said, the monthly candles for August become official today at the closing bell. And on the small and mid-cap ETF monthly chart, respectively below, we have two prominent wicks for each index telling a story of a substantial fade during this month, on the cusp of closing at their respective lows. 

Beyond that, these wicks occur after a prior, steep, and established uptrend, with the small caps especially garnering heaps of praise and popularity for being a rotation beneficiary in this market for a variety of reasons. Hence, a massive fade at the highs and closing out August on the lows is noteworthy and should put us on watch for downside follow-through, particularly into the most seasonally bearish month of the year coming right up. 

Elsewhere, though of course possible related to the weakness in the small/mid-caps, both rates and oil are higher today. This is clearly not what the White House wants to see. However, the constant jawboning from the President and Treasury Secretary seems to be met with increased apathy from market players, which seems like another sign of where the pain trade is truly hidden (higher rates and higher oil).