MarketChess

10Mar12:38 pmEST

False Bottoms and False Prophets

It looks like Twitter (or "X," with the site having technical issues) is down with the market today, as Friday afternoon's upside reversal on Fed Chair Jay Powell's upbeat remarks about the economy is now falling flat.  For many years now, the market has given more than the benefit of the doubt to Powell. He always seemed to have the Midas...

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07Mar3:41 pmEST

Afternoon Update 03/07/25 {Video}

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06Mar3:29 pmEST

I Know a Dirty Crew When I See It

Headed into tomorrow morning's jobs report we have equities swooning again today. Bottom-callers expected the 200-day moving averages on the senior indices to provide more immediate support. But the battle wages on as the tariff headlines become more indecisive and murky by the day. In addition, some earnings disasters like MDB and MRVL are not...

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05Mar3:00 pmEST

A Thousand Blows Could Ruin the Art of the Deal

The "now-you-see-it, now-you-don't" game of tariffs being played by the Trump Administration reminds me an awful lot of The Fed's work on inflation in recent years: Talking tough at certain times but quickly retreating at the first sign of market dislocation.  But here is the real risk: Markets eventually become punch-drunk from all of the...

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04Mar12:47 pmEST

It's Only Natural

After years of countless dips getting bought aggressively, "V"-shaping to fresh highs in short order even in the face of seemingly insurmountable bearish headwinds, it is only natural for shorts to now be concerned about getting caught up in a vicious squeeze at any moment. Similarly, it is only natural for bulls to now fear missing out on yet...

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03Mar3:30 pmEST

Trapped in the Same Hotel

After last Friday's late-day upside reversal, coupled with a Trump crypto pump tweet over the weekend, a familiar expectation was that today would annihilate short-sellers with yet another in a long line of face-ripping reversion rallies in light of the market's recent pullback.  As we have been noting with Members, however, that expectation...

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28Feb3:34 pmEST

Afternoon Update 02/28/25 {Video}

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27Feb2:42 pmEST

It's the Jacket

As it turns out, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's famous black leather jacket  could not spawn another epic earnings gap higher this time around for the monster AI name. Instead, NVDA is down by more than 5% as I write this, with the semiconductors as a sector leading to the downside all session long.  In addition, the second largest SMH ETF holding...

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26Feb3:39 pmEST

A Copper!

News of Trump ordering a new tariff probe into copper imports  is seeing copper futures rally alongside a premier domestic copper miner like Freeport, below on its daily chart.  FCX has been underwhelming for a while now in 2025. However, I have highlighted a potential bottoming pattern with $41 being an upside trigger to usher in a breakout....

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25Feb2:23 pmEST

The Coming-Around-the-Mountain Pattern

It is not likely an exaggeration to say that the pattern of the major indices gapping down and printing the lows of the session within the first 10-90 minutes after the opening bell occurred several dozen--if not over a hundred times--over the last two years.  The buy programs would pounce on any initial weakness and ignite a furious squeeze,...

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