One Eye on the Red Army

While Russia crashes, via the RSX country ETF down more than 10% today after a prior steep downtrend, energy stocks in the XLE are valiantly trying to hold green. Catching the falling knife in Russia is tempting, via a RUSL play, but we are not there yet. Ideally, a gap down tomorrow would set up a more viable long in this situation. But, for now, Russia is crashing and I am watching. Regarding oil and energy stocks, my sense is that they could easily be close to a snapback rally, but tons of eyeballs are on them and it may not be as dramatic a bounce as people expect. Zooming out to the broad market, the S&P ETF, below, shows a 30-minute steep falling channel with price oscillating within it. The market is still corrective and bounces are being celebrated with exuberance. While we know this bull has been an outlier with its many V-shaped rallies, a more standard correction would see us head lower yet against the backdrop of that kind of sentiment. Three names which are outperforming today, mentioned over the weekend in my video as actionable long ideas if the market improves here" NAT NILE TXRH.