Back in Natty; Chess Moves

I just went long UGAZ, the triple-long natural gas ETF, at $4.07 with a protective stop-loss below $3.80. The position amounts to roughly 4% of my trading portfolio capital. I have played UGAZ for quick-hitters over the past year or two, capturing sizable pops and religious cutting it those times I was wrong for contained losses. While many traders seem to be focused on oil, I believe a better bottom-fishing opportunity may now be ripe for natty. On the weekly chart for UNG, the straight-up natural gas ETF, note the weekly candlestick being formed as the lower Bollinger Band, potentially indicative of a reversal bottom.