Probe the Prober; Chess Moves

A general rule in technical analysis is that the more times a well-defined price area or trend is probed, the more likely it is to eventually give way as that level inherently loses its luster. In many respects, it is a self-fufilling prophecy as many seem to be watching the same thing. So, it is a well-defined support trendline is lost, then it would be rather unsurprising to see it quickly give way to even more selling. In the case of FB, here we have what has been a very resilient Nasdaq leader, even as many of its peers have suffered serious technical damage in recent quarters. Still, I elected to go short FB again, since the last time I tried and was quickly stopped out, based on the theory discussed above. On the updated daily chart, note how many times FB is leaning down against the lower light blue line. I am playing for this to break lower before earnings on January 28th. I will cover either way before then. I entered at $76.22 with a stop over $79. This is roughly 4% of my portfolio.