Another Contender Now

In addition to my analysis of IBM, a stodgy multi-national brand already in a downtrend from a confirmed multi-year topping pattern, American Express looks more and more by the day like it will follow suit. Thus, AmEx is a contender, now, for a multi-year topping pattern in its own right, especially with its latest earnings gap lower. On the monthly chart, below, note the head and shoulders top (highlighted in light blue) after a prior, steep, and established multi-year uptrend. AXP has essentially been "dead money" since late-2013, and the risk to long-term holders is that this entire choppy period has amounted to a major topping out phase. I view a move back under $84 as confirming the breakdown, projective a move down to just above $70. A close over $95 likely renders the bear thesis negated.