Debating a Justifiable Swing

Earlier this afternoon I initiated what I planned to be a day-trade on Stocktwits and Twitter in DWTI, the triple-short ETF for crude oil. Here is my original note. I sold off profits up to $104.86. Currently, I have half of the position on and am debating swinging it overnight. Crude oil has seen a nice multi-day short squeeze back from beaten-down conditions. However, sentiment seems to have quickly flipped bullish again, which is consistent with an exuberant but short-lived bear market rally. As you can see on the USO ETF daily chart, crude is outside its upper Bollinger Band and already quite short-term overbought. Typically, overbought conditions in a downtrend can be shorted. The risk is that oil has put in a good, bear market low and is in a new bull, in which case overbought stays overbought. I will be debating this issue before the bell today.