Trapping the Big Cat with a Chase; Chess Moves

I just went short the giant global industrial player, Caterpillar, at $83.03, with a protective cover-stop over $86. This position amounts to roughly 4% of my trading portfolio capital.

The big CAT has been weak on the whole since around Thanksgiving of last year. But that weakness has been covered up by the chase happening in the market at-large. 

I have previously profiled the significance of the $80 level on CAT going back nearly a decade now. 

And with the highlighted (in purple) daily chart pennant threatening to resolve lower today, I am taking my shot that this time is the real deal, where CAT plunges down to $80 and actually breaks it this time for a multi-year breakdown. 

The declining 50-day moving average, above, coincides with the $86 level, which would be a sensible place for me to admit I am wrong and cut my loss.