The Most Pivotal Battle in the War

At the risk of being overly-dramatic, consider the junior gold miner ETF, below on the daily timeframe, currently testing its all-time lows from 2014. 

The GDXJ is currently riding below its lower Bollinger Band, indicative of oversold conditions. But that need not mean much if this is the next fresh leg lower in an ongoing bear market, where oversold conditions simply strength the bear case at the onset of a next leg down.

For a while now, gold bugs have had ample opportunities to cement a multi-year bottom, which I would have bee more than happy to get behind. 

Instead, they fumbled each rally, compelling to maintain a tactical approach of selling the likes of JNUG NUGT into strength since 2013, and quickly cutting losing forays into the complex as it worked through a sloppy sideways range. 

After playing the short side of the miners via DUST last week, the issue is whether it is worth stepping in for a quick reversion trade on the long side. 

To my eye, if gold bugs cannot step in to muster a potential double-bottom on the GDXJ at $21.40, then all bets are off for the long side to work throughout the entire complex, including silver, etc..

Thus, this retest on the GDXJ today and this week is the most pivotal battle in the gold war, to date.