Calling the Whole Story Into Question

Continuing with an ongoing theme we have been discussing in recent notes, the weakness in the transports was largely eschewed by bulls this spring, as many stocks and indices pushed higher yet. Even as summer officially kicked off this week, we still saw a new round of all-time highs in many parts of the market. 

But transports, as a group, have failed to hold bounces. And now the strongest link in the group, Fedex, which could have easily been the glue keeping the complex from unraveling, is back below its breakout point from earlier this month. 

In addition, rails are rolling over again, namely CP UNP, while airlines could be back in play on the short side. 

With respect to FDX, seen below on its daily chart, failure to recapture $174 now has me looking for the strongest and largest (by far) IYT ETF component to wreak havoc on an IYT chart which is already well below declining 150-day and 200-day moving averages.

The entire FDX breakout/bull rotation story now, I believe correctly, can be called into question.