Played Right Into the Bear's Mouth

If you have been following my work and agreed with my thinking, then you know the risk int he energy complex continued to be lower, what with a vast array of declining 200-day moving averages not just in crude oil itself (ETF daily chart, below), but with major energy stocks.

Simply put, a declining 200-day moving average, especially well above spot price, means the bear is in control until proven otherwise. 

And despite the many bold calls for a firm bottom in crude, the market is properly showing that it is the ultimate arbiter. Indeed, the old saying of, "I know old traders, I know bold traders. But I know no old, bold traders," comes to mind. 

While crude and energy stocks may be oversold here, short-term, the risk remains of a wipeout lower, after many months of churning sideways.

At a minimum, this type of analysis should have kept you safe and eschewing bottom-fishing in a broken sector. 

Moreover, when you look at multi-decade charts of large energy firms like COP CVX XOM, etc., the down move may just be getting started. 

Long story short--Don't play into the bears' mouths in energy. While bulls still have the edge in biotechs, for example, they most certainly do not in the energy patch.