There's a Big Fight at Walmart

Long-time readers will recall that I was wildly bullish on WMT back in October 2011 as a long-term investment idea. The stock had been basing sideways for over a decade, and was widely considered to be a byproduct of capitalism's creative destruction, succumbing to pressures from the likes of AMZN COST, among others. 

Still, the chart was coiled and price had a good chance to break up and out of the base. 

Last year, though, I grew more cautious on the name, and backed off the long-term bull case significantly as the calendar flipped to 2015. 

On the updated monthly chart, below, there is a big fight playing out at the $70 level. A monthly close below $70 opens up the distinct possibility for a confirmed top, specifically the novelty of George Lindsay's "Three Peaks and a Domed House" formation.

Novelty chart patterns aside, this is a major consumer name which is now under pressure after a multi-year advance. So a breakdown below $70 would indeed be noteworthy. 

The time to be anticipatory and aggressive was back in 2011. Now is much more of a reactive moment in the market.