06Oct2:38 pmEST

Careful with That Silver Spoon

The close in the silver ETF today, pictured below on the daily timeframe, should be a big one as the precious metal gaps up to both its declining 200-day moving average as well as above its upper Bollinger Band to overbought conditions. 

As you can see, silver has confirmed an inverse head and shoulders temporary bottom. But the key is now holding over its "neckline" on any pullbacks, roughly $14.60. 

Of course, the caveat here is that if the precious metals and miners are, in fact, forming bear market bottoms for the next several quarters, then the initial move off those lows will likely feature a persistently overbought condition, which means shorting days like today, as ugly as the candlestick looks short-term, can actually be a trap as we keep gapping higher anyway. 

So the best thing to do is usually take it one at a time, calculating setups as the price action unfolds and reacts to this initial overbought reading. 

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