Revolt Now or Forever Hold Your Peace

There are a few schools of thought about the bond market out here right now. One is that "We are Japan," with rates bound to stay low regardless of The Fed, due to secular deflationary pressures. 

Another view is that rates should steadily rise from here in a healthy manner due to The Fed being behind the curve, as usual, and the U.S. macro data faring better than most believe. 

Yet another view, one that is an outlier, is that The Fed is in the early stages of "losing the bond market" as confidence erodes in them due to their polices and jawboning apparently beholden to the day-to-day movement of markets--Something akin to children bossing around their parents. Therefore, rates will suddenly spike up and cause huge dislocations in the system. This view essentially argues that the bon market will revolt against The Fed. 

Either way, we should get some idea which side will prevail, with TLT up against monthly resistance, seen below (TLT tracks Treasury prices, inverse to yields). The failure to hold over $130 may be significant now, as bonds are selling today in the face of the massive risk-on rally in equities. 

I suspect violent rejection lower, in lieu of a steady pullback, will give the outlier argument a fighting chance.