07Apr3:36 pmEST
What if Netflix Has Zero Chill?
Several months ago, we looked at a bearish scenario which would requite extreme patience for a prominent leader in the broad market.
As a corollary to the weekly chart of the XLY, consumer discretionary ETF, leading glamorous issue Netflix may have needed time after its sell-off in January to form a "right shoulder" of larger top which, in the process, would trap a new batch of longs. Similar comments apply to the XLY weekly chart (NFLX is a holding in both the XLY and XRT--retail--ETFs).
On the updated weekly chart, below, I see plenty of bullish sentiment still hyped up about Netflix and chill. But what if NFLX has zero chill this spring, so to speak?
The rally in late-winter may very well have been the quintessential right shoulder rally to complete the top before a fresh leg down. $105 continues to act as resistance, as does the 200-day moving average. Back under $100, then $96, should get the ball rolling for bears.
Earnings are scheduled for April 18th, after which I would look to initiate a position of the bear case survives.
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