More Reflection on Twitter

A key point we have been emphasizing for Members in recent sessions is that the higher TWTR's stock went, the larger the risk of a ferocious rug-pull if an imminent buyout was not realized. So, in the short-term the stock smacked of that much more risk. 

But now that we have seen a barrage of negative reports hit in the last fifteen hours or so, regarding the likes of AAPL DIS GOOGL now unlikely to even make a buyout bid for Twitter, we need to reassess the chart on its own merits. 

Clearly, a good deal of the buyout hot money has now shaken from the name. However, the chart may still be bottoming long-term. On the updated daily chart, below, TWTR is gapping back down to its rough prior breakout area at $20. 

If bulls can now stabilize price here in the coming days and resume some type of move back higher, regardless of whether CRM, MSFT, or someone else makes a bid, then the technicals for TWTR could still be deemed much-improved this year despite today's shock to a good many longs. 

Again, the short-term headline risk remains, but is somewhat alleviated in light of today's haircut. 

In essence, TWTR ultimately comes down to your timeframe and process--If you are methodical and focused on technicals, then regardless of your views on M&A and the fundamentals, the stock would make for an attractive long entry back over $21.10 on a weekly closing basis. 

Unless and until that happens, TWTR is reflecting back on its prior breakout after slipping in a puddle and falling face-first into it.