An Interesting Head Start

Amid a quiet open for most equities, it is interesting to say the least for Treasuries to gap up in front of the FOMC later today. 

On the TLT daily chart, below, with this ETF pushing up and off its 200-day moving average it would seem to price in the Fed not being particularly hawkish today, even if they do raise rates. Specifically, the market may be expecting the Fed's forecasts and Yellen's presser to be rather dovish in tone to couch any hike in rates, or perhaps even discounting the Fed to stand pat altogether. 

Either way, bonds and gold are gapping up here, which raises the specter of these asset classes perhaps standing to get whacked if the Fed is actually more hawkish than expected. 

We know utilities, staples, and REITs have fared much better than bonds since last summer, perhaps hinting at an expectation of low rates for far longer than most expect. But "Fed Days" are notorious for head-fakes and reversals, especially when one group thinks they have the whole puzzle figured out beforehand. 

As for stocks, the tech bounce in QQQ is slowing down as a name like AAPL flips red. TSLA is still in runaway squeeze mode, extra salt on the shorts' wound indeed. But the gist of the action lends itself to waiting until the afternoon for some more clues.