March Madness with a Kiss

It's that time of year, where we can expect to hear plenty of Bill Raftery's classic NCAA basketball sayings as well as the pre-Sell-in-May-and-go-away grace period for equities, which typically have rather bullish seasonality in March and April.

That said, the market is moving at a rather pedestrian pace this morning, as I suspect the true test is unfolding on the SPY (actively-traded ETF for the S&P 500 Index) daily chart, seen below. 

After breaking a well-defined symmetrical triangle higher last Friday, spilling over into earlier this week, the market has retraced down to or "kissed" the breakout area. Bulls likely need to hold the prior breakout to avoid any type of panic from recent dip-buyers who assumed we will come nowhere close to retesting the prior February lows. This level equates to roughly 2,750 on the actual S&P 500 Index. 

To be clear, it is not the end of the world for bulls back below 2,750. But it would surely slow down bulls who are trying to make some moves this morning in more long-term turnaround plays, such as BB and FEYE. 

In addition, the BABA strength on the China listing news has us looking at BIDU, which has quietly been a much-improved chart over the last month.