An Exotic Solar Guide for a Simple Chart

The long-term chart for TAN, sector ETF for solar stocks, below on the monthly timeframe, tells the story of a sector which has largely been dead money since 2012.

While it is true that there were spirited rallies in 2013, early-2014 and early-2015, ultimately those breakout attempts were met with stiff resistance, and the long, sideways bathtub bottom (at best) action persisted. 

During this time period, energy and energy stocks in general also floundered. Hence, we can see the correlation between solar and crude, as well as energy stocks in general still in play on a basic level. 

Recently, though, select solar stocks have emerged as potential new leaders. SolarEdge (SEDG) is a rather intriguing play, making all-time highs as recently as last week. 

First Solar (FSLR) is a widely-known domestic solar, and FSLR is rather quietly hitting highs this morning not seen since the year 2011. In addition, SunPower (SPWR) is gapping higher by more than 13.5% on news of an acquisition. We also have other domestic names of note like Sunrun (RUN) acting well in recent months. 

Naturally, with Trump in the White House many of the Chinese solars have been underwhelming in their price action. But that ought not take away, and in fact likely enhances, the action in domestic solars. 

Back to TAN for a moment, the monthly chart suggests bulls would need to eventually clear $50 to confirm a long-term bottom, which would mean nearly 100% higher from spot price. Of course, that seems like an arduous task for even the most steadfast of solar bulls. 

So we will take things one session at a time, with SEDG RUN FSLR and now SPWR, even a speculative up-and-comer like Vivint Solar (VSLR) the focal points for a domestic-based solar bull run on the back of energy's resurgence.