27Dec11:11 amEST
Welcome to the Latest Episode of "Pick Your Bias"
In lieu of immediate upside follow-through to yesterday's explosive intraday reversal and squeeze higher, equities are doing some serious backing and filling for what is becoming the norm of wide price swings and possible new ranges. Of course, there other possibility is that yesterday's was a one-day wonder for bulls, and that we are now in the process of rolling back over.
When we look for clues to determine which scenario is more viable from here on in, through at least New Year's if not the middle portion of next week, the usual "tells" like GS (which was a big key yesterday), HYG JNK (high yield corporate and junk bond ETFs, respectively) and crude oil all are still in play.
To keep things simple, though the SPY, ETF for the S&P 500 Index, below on the 30-minute chart, illustrates the "pick your bias" nature of the current action given the last twenty-four hours. Bulls will argue the purple lines are simply a bull flag off yesterday's rally, preparing us to go much higher over $245 (2450 on the S&P) soon.
Bears will counter that the light blue lines are merely an overdue relief bounce, amounting to a bear flag before we slice down under $240 (2400) again and make fresh lows in this downtrend.
What we know with more certainty at the moment is that all of the major averages are sporting "inside days" today, as the daily candles thus far are well within yesterday's price ranges and not below the mid-point of those ranges, either, at least not yet. It would serve bulls well to defend these backtests sooner than later, lest it all slip away, perhaps well before the clock strikes midnight and the ball drops in Times Square on New Year's Eve.
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