Another Trap House for Homebuilders?

To follow-up on some blog posts over the last few weeks, it looks as though the homebuilders have finally woken up.

Once the XHB ETF, updated, below on its daily timeframe, successfully reclaimed the $36 level bulls sure seemed to be galvanized by that development. 

And today's candlestick furthers that notion, with a solid green candle and no discernible shadows (fades) as we head towards the closing bell. 

Also note that price is poking above that 200-day simple moving average (yellow line) for the first time in a good while. We have seen this movie before, however, as the homebuilders have been in a ferocious downtrend since January 2018. 

So is it another trap this time around, again, with buyers buying above this 200-day m.a. poke bound to be punished with an abrupt rollover? 

Perhaps. 

But what we do know is that many individual homebuilders are actually further along technically to the upside than the XHB, which is a bullish sign in and of itself. Typically, in a doomed bear market rally we see important individual components bounce along but fail to truly improve technically on intermediate-term timeframes. 

Not so this time around, as the likes of LGIH MDC TOL TREX are all rallying today after holding their own 200-day moving averages on recent backtests. 

The rest of the sector needs to follow suit, of course, namely DHI LEN PHM (and they are today). 

For now, this is the best homebuilder look we have seen arguably in several quarters, and I want to see it through, giving bulls a fighting chance this time around.