21Dec3:55 pmEST

My Winter Vision Versus the Consensus

To follow-up on a blog post and running thesis of mine, the tweet, below, by Lisa Abramowicz of Bloomberg points out consensus on The Street for rates on the 10-year Note for 2021. 

A slight rise is projected across the board, pretty much without exception. 

As per my previous work on this topic, I therefore have growing conviction in either no rise in rates at all or, the scenario I am leaning towards, a sharp, scary spike in rates which forces many a financial model to recalibrate and possibly cause dislocations. 

But a steady-as-she-goes little rise in rates seems way too expected and way too easy at this point. 

Note that both of those scenarios would frustrate this consensus. 

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