17Mar10:24 amEST

The Wind That Shakes the Barley, and Growth

[The Wind That Shakes the Barley, a fine 2006 Irish film about the Irish War of Independence (1919–1921) and the Irish Civil War (1922–1923)].

In front of a highly anticipated FOMC later today we are seeing a pretty good example in this morning's tape of how sensitive growth stocks have become to the movement in rates on the 10-Year Note. Specifically, as rates move higher the QQQ weakness, and vice versa. That said, this relationship is becoming rather obvious at his point and it would not surprise me to see the market throw a curveball in the near-term, perhaps later today, to keep speculators honest at the risk of knee-jerk trading. 

Still, the fact remains that the market is at a critical juncture, with double the emphasis on the Nasdaq. As I write this, I see the QQQ is attempting a morning bounce off the opening lows. We have been looking with Members to see whether the bounce holds over $318 as a baseline test intraday. If not, I may very well flatten out a bit into the FOMC and reassess afterwards. 

Precious metals and miners also continue to capture my attention. I suspect they are being severely overlooked here for a variety of reasons. Of the miners, Hecla Mining, founded in the 19th century and based out of Coeur d'Alene, Idaho, continue to impress with its relative strength. 

On the updated HL daily chart, below, we can see the tight, long, sideways base dating back to late-last summer when the precious complex put in an intermediate-term top. HL had many chances to weaken and follow the group lower since then, but instead merely based out further. I suspect a move back over $7 now unleashes a furious new uptrend. 

The Rapacious Twenties Comet... Stock Market Recap 03/17/21 ...

 
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