01Apr11:10 amEST

April Fool's Paradise


fool's par·a·dise
/ˈfo͞olz ˌperəˌdīz/
noun

a state of happiness based on a person's not knowing about or denying the existence of potential trouble.

The S&P 500 Index above 4,000, tech stocks finding a strong bid the last two sessions and taking the baton back from the infrastructure monsters which clearly front-ran the Biden speech yesterday (CLF USCR X, etc.). And small caps climbing back after some recent turbulence. These are all tough headwinds for bears betting on an imminent market rollover, despite a plethora of classic warning signs in recent months. 

In reality, equities continue to impressively shrug off potentially disastrous news and liquidity events, using the bull weapon of rotation as a key weapon in the arsenal. 

As it stands now, tech and energy stocks, including solars, seem most actionable to me. Of course, we have the risk of a non-farm jobs payrolls number tomorrow morning while the cash market is closed to kick off a long Easter weekend. So if you are not of the mind to dabble in high beta small cap riskier names, you may consider a name I am long, GILD, a much larger biotech which has been basing along its 200-day moving average the last few months. GILD should benefit from this QQQ rotation, if only for an early-April period. 

And despite how much bears may think this market is a fool's paradise for bulls, the SMH potential head and shoulders top, second chart, below, never triggered and puts bears on the run again. One of these days we will get a major top which triggers, which is why it is important to not laugh them off. But until then having the agility and open-mindedness to entertain these patterns without hastily acting on them is a critical skill. 

Hey, Dr. Jones, No Time for ... Weekend Overview and Analysi...

 
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