The Breakout That Never Was

One of the consequences of natural gas being such an out of favor and, at various times, a downright laughable laggard even within a commodities space in a long ice age type of bear market over the last 5-10 years or so is that when we do see actual progress in natty, many are prone not only to doubt it but also to straight up ignore it. 

Indeed, apathy is often what you see at the very end of a prolonged bear market, not fear, panic, disgust, which tends to come before we arrive at apathy. Readers and Members will recall we had this precise discussion around last Halloween regarding crude oil and energy stocks, just when many were declaring the space simply uninvestable. Of course, that was the moment to hold one's nose and buy the likes of CVX, among others. 

Regarding natty, the UNG ETF daily chart, below, is showing tangible technical progress this week and especially today with a gap over the stubborn $11.30 resistance area. With seasonal tailwinds such as hurricane season, summer air conditioning and driving demand, on top of the general improvement in most commodities of late, natty is officially out of excuses in terms of actually following-through and sustaining a fresh bull run.

That is my bet, at least, and I suspect I am in what will be far from a crowded trade for the foreseeable future.