16Jun10:33 amEST
Look at Box if The Fed Doesn't Open Pandora's Box
Pan·do·ra's box
/panˌdôrəz ˈbäks/
noun
a process that generates many complicated problems as the result of unwise interference in something.
I suppose part of the way to pass the time in the midst of a drifting, boring market before the FOMC later today is by guessing whether The Fed will or will not make concrete plans to taper and even tighten in the coming quarters.
Then again, as Lord Acton famously said, “power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely." Thus, why would The Fed willingly relinquish any form of "power" they have over markets, risking another taper tantrum and/or the extreme humiliation down the road of possibly being forced to undo the taper and revert back to the endless printing press?
There are viable arguments for The Fed going either way today, down the continued "transitory" inflation dovish path or, instead, opting for a more hawkish tone if they are truly rattled by some of the inflation data behind the scenes and recognize that the sooner they open Pandora's Box, the better, in the long run at least.
Should we see the former scenario, I expect growth stocks (and perhaps most stocks) to seize the opportunity. If so, BOX looks about as strong as any tech chart I see on the board right now, tightly basing in the context of an intermediate-term uptrend. BOX made its prior all-time highs three full years ago, in the summer of 2018. Since then, it has intermittently lagged many software peers.
But now may be its time to shine, especially if Jay Powell and his band of merry printers take the easy way out and essentially place all of their faith on "transitory."