A Bittersweet Time of Year

Depending on where you live and what your attitude is towards the various seasons, this time of year can be rather bittersweet. Here in the northeast, cold weather and shorter days await us.

But hurricanes are extremely rare, and compared to tropical climes down south the summers typically are not horrendously hot and humid. So, it is indeed bittersweet insofar as summer coming to an end. 

Down in the Gulf regions and along the southeast Atlantic Ocean corridors, the end of summer is often bittersweet for different reasons--Relatively cooler climes (but still nice and sunny) as summer abates, but that joy is tempered by the prospect of a terrible late-summer hurricane stretch.

And so we find ourselves in that situation, with Tropical Storm Ida strengthening as we speak. A bright spot has been natural gas, a position I sold out of this morning with Members but one I plan to revisit soon enough. Simply put, I wanted to lock in a much-needed win as the commodity screams near-term overbought, even as it potentially stages a breakout on a much bigger scale than many realize. A new long-term bull market in natty would be bittersweet, indeed, for almost all of us in terms of rising prices where natty is used as an input. 

For now, as we await Powell's Jackson Hole remarks, the stage is set for him to address just how concerned he is about rising prices in general. Several Fed heads have already come out fairly strong in favor of a taper sooner than later.

And although I am sure Powell does not want to rock the boat nor jeopardize his own reappointment, I have a hard time seeing how he does not at least address the taper issue today. The consensus seems to be that the taper is priced in anyway, with tons of folks expecting a snooze-fest and another non-event. I am not so sure, especially considering how the Fed's punch bowl fueled upside momentum and psychology. 

It cuts both ways, you know...