04Nov10:42 amEST

The Most Heinous Sounding Pair Trade in the World Right Now

it is almost criminal to consider shorting the Nasdaq at this point, what with its one-way melt-up and daily buy program frenzy which seems to run into any initial opening bell weakness we see. And with that, QQQ (second daily chart, below) is up by more than 1% again as I write this, with NVDA surging this time and TSLA featuring a modest gap higher. Chips and software are playing along, the former thanks in large part to QCOM up 11% but, in general, the belief that stocks really do only go higher and that even if we are staring at runaway inflation, growth stocks make for a great hedge. 

While I very much doubt the latter on a long-term timeframe, I have yet to initiate any tech shorts as I am waiting for, perhaps, one more thrust to align with a potential reversal. 

On the other end of the tape, gold miners (first daily chart, below) held the $31 support level yesterday and are showing life today. My bet is that gold, silver, and their miners have put in a good higher low which is sentiment, especially given that overall sentiment in the sector is apathetic, which also aligns with a good low. 

The most absurd pair trade right now may very well be long GDX, short QQQ. Over the next few months it is absolutely seen as a contrarian play, on both counts. But it may just be the right one to make in light of how out of line both markets have become. 

Here Come the Tankers All Hail the Shale

 
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