20Dec10:28 amEST

Christmas Week Selloff: But Where's the Fear, Dear?

Amid the the Nasdaq Composite Index hitting its lowest level since mid-October, this morning still features tons of market players and pundits alike opining that the current market action is being driven by Omicron "fears" and tensions in Washington over a major spending bill. 

And, yet, there really is not much actual fear when it comes to the market itself. The selling seems orderly and is being met with far more calls for an imminent bottom and reversal higher into Christmas and New Year's than it is for calls that we have been seeing a deteriorating market for quite some time now. As we speak, the VIX is in the mid-20s, which is elevated and in correction territory for equities. But it is far from a glaring, "buy the blood" scenario where "everyone is freaking out," or the like. 

While it is true that ARKK and XBI, for example, are showing some relative strength here, recall that both Cathie Wood's flagship ETF and biotechs at-large have suffered large drawdowns in recent weeks. Some consolidation here would be reasonable, but many seem to be overlooking the possibility of another leg down soon enough. 

Overall, as per prior market cycles which we discussed with Members this weekend, I have a close eye on the small cap ETF, seen on the IWM weekly chart, below, Prior cycles have seen a false breakout higher followed by acceleration lower to coincide with a market correction. 

Thus, the $210, then $208 level (especially) on IWM remain the last stand battleground for dip-buyers amid a fearless market. 

The real question is--Does real fear materialize soon enough?

Act Accordingly: This is a S... Later On, We'll Conspire...

 
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