Peek Your Head Over Your Peak Inflation Thesis

The slightest dip in rates in this morning, with TLT up a touch, led to a broad market bounce off the open. In and of itself, considering the context of monetary policy, macro, recent market action, this seems like evidence per se that correlations are running tightly which we often see in an ongoing corrective market. 

Thus, as IWM flips red as I write this, the take-home message this morning is that market rallies remain guilty until proven innocent, despite how many seem to be pining both for peak inflation to begin receding to coincide with a bottom in growth stocks. 

Beyond that, the soft commodities are threatening major secondary breakouts. Commodities like corn, coffee, cotton, beans, and wheat seem to be leading the charge, with my long DBA ETF, below on the weekly chart, indicating as much. Again, this does not seem synonymous with anything resembling a wishful "peak inflation" argument.

Quite the contrary, as this inflation is only just beginning. And The Fed has yet to actually get moving with aggressive measures to, at the very least for showmanship, indicate it is now fighting the good fight.