02Feb3:28 pmEST

Oil: Where's the Tip-Tip-Tippin' Point?

WTI crude oil currently has an $88/barrel handle as I write this, begging the age-old question of where the precise tipping point is where high oil prices began to have noticeable deleterious effects on the economy to the point were the market simply cannot ignore it. 

When we saw the oil spike back in Q2 2008, I remember being at an airport in the late-spring of 2008 with CNBC on one of the televisions in the waiting area at the gate. Oil was trading in the upper $80s back then, too, and was on its way to around $150 at one point. An elderly gentleman, probably in his late-70s, walked by and stared up at the TV. He mumbled, "Oil is above $80 a barrel and stocks didn't crash yet?". 

For some reason that always stuck with me, especially since we know what happened on the back end of that year. 

Typically, oil above $80 for longer than a quick cup of coffee can often cause problems in due time. And we are seeing just that with WTI so far this year. But even if it takes the Nasdaq and consumer stocks a while longer to crack under the pressure of high oil, what we do know is that the commodity stocks themselves are in bull mode and more and more folks are realizing it by the day. 

In an energy bull run, there are all sorts of interesting lays which eventually rally, be it chemicals, engineering firms, and the energy trusts like BPT and SJT (check out those dividends, by the way). Many of these stocks have been laying dormant for years on end and are only now enjoying their reawakening. 

Personally, I find that much more actionable and interesting than, say, what FB does in earnings tonight, or SPOT. 

Bounces Rolled Up and Smashe... An Important Message Lurking...

 
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