The Long View of a Frustrating Tape

Yesterday I locked in another foray into the short Treasuries space (betting on higher rates) via selling a long TBT play I had. My thinking being that despite my bearish view of Treasuries throughout this year and beyond, it was still imperative to dance through the inevitable raindrops and respect the ebb and flow which markets often struggle with when a major regime change is afoot. 

Simply put, there are many market players and pundits who still do not accept the view that rates are headed much higher in the coming quarters, just as many do not accept that growth and most tech stocks (including the fan favorite mega cap names) can head much lower in the coming quarters. 

In the near-term, I am willing to cede a a relief rally in the likes of TLT. But I am viewing that as a spot to reengage a short in the not too distant future, rather than buying into the idea of a major bottom in Treasuries and thus top in rates. To be clear, I still think rates on the 10-Year head above 3% faster than most expect.

Headed into NVDA earnings tonight (and AMAT, not AMD, another major semiconductor player), stocks reversed back to green in the face of seemingly hawkish Fed Minutes from the last FOMC released. Just about all markets and stocks right now seem hellbent on chopping up most traders, with gold/miners being perhaps the smoothest so far. 

Still, the major indices are far from healed technically. And if the market somehow decides that NVDA does not quite measure up to expectations tonight, those who declared a bottom today may be in rude awakening as soon as tomorrow. 

Finally, the last round of QE bond buying is scheduled for the week ending March 11th, according to the New York Fed website. One scenario, as painful as it sounds, is that the market simply sloshes around in a range until then. At that point we will find out what equities are made of without the reality (and perception) of QE in play, with the March FOMC the following week in mid-March.