Stop Trying So Hard To Make Your Case

Speaking from personal experience in my younger, more brazen days, eager bulls would probably be best served by not trying so hard to make their case for an imminent and major market bottom--At least the type of imminent rally which is worth getting behind with significant financial and emotional capital. And, make no mistake, both are precious commodities in this business. 

In other words, as each failed bounce materializes and each overnight pop in the futures fades into the distance with bulls quieted down after bellowing about how offsides bears are, we probably get closer to a washout type of scenario where AAPL, TSLA, and the senior indices effectively succumb to the type of selling pressure we have seen continually hit growth stocks as well as other leaders like FB NFLX, even AMZN GOOGL of late.

Markets have a history of doing as much, at least. And with inflation remaining omnipresent even if the Ukraine situation fades a bit, the case for a new regime of markets selling into rips rather than buying dips to V-shape to new highs seem more likely.

As far as downside targets are concerned, while I am not crazy about trading in lockstep with dogmatic targets, I do indeed see the April 2021 open gap lower on the SPY (ETF for S&P 500 Index) down around $400, which is about 4000 on the S&P 500 cash. Given the lack of buying power we are seeing at current, prior support levels, I absolutely think a washout could get us down to 4000 in a few sessions, which would serve to stop out all hopeful and thus far unsuccessful dip-buyers heretofore.