Don't Worry: You Made a Good Fold! (For Me)

Poker is a game of incomplete information, whereby any tidbit, however small, you come by can be considered valuable. You then need to be discerning, self-aware that some players may give off false flags to try to trick you into thinking certain things about their playing style and given cards on a given hand. 

A classic example would be if I made a big bet on the river (the final street of betting) in a game, and my opponent in the pot decides to ultimately fold, not calling my bet and giving me the pot.

As I scoop the pot and stack the chips, the opponent might shout, "Hey, Chess! I folded pocket Kings. Was it a good fold?"

I may respond, with a smirk, "It was a good fold...for me!" implying I could be joking, or maybe not. 

This morning, futures lurched higher on the headline that Putin said there were "positive shifts" in peace talks with Ukraine. And, of course, my initial thought was: Positive shifts for whom, Vladimir? For you? Because that it what I suspect he could have easily meant with a smirk.

Of course, I am fully aware we are talking about human lives at play and not a game of cards. But when it comes to how the Russia/Ukraine conflict has unfolded, the fact that the market took a headline at face value so quickly reinforces the low liquidity and heightened sense of volatility and, foremost, uncertainty we are seeing right now. 

From a market perspective, that is the main takeaway from the pre-market action for me. 

As for the cash session so far, QQQ just flipped red. We may flop around some more as we have all week in front of the FOMC next Wednesday. But consider this a gentle reminder that the trend is still down for all the indices with no confirmed bottom close to materializing, just yet.