Check, Please?

If today does indeed mark a major bull trap, sending us much lower into the heart of earnings next week before the FOMC in two weeks, then tech/growth names like ARKK IWM QQQ TSLA should probably close at or near session lows today and immediately follow-through with a hard move down tomorrow into the weekend to effectively trap in longs and not let them out next week. After all, the reality of Jay Powell finally being willing to act tough in two weeks is starting to set in on equities, even as they yawned it off as recently as this morning in the face of the bond market taking it much more seriously. 

That may be a big "ask," however, since I am sure shorts will reflexively cover a bit into the bell today out of fear of being squeezed again overnight, as we have seen too many times to list of late. But the blueprint is something along the lines of what I outlined above. 

Interestingly, gold caught a late-afternoon bid, as the GLD ETF is fighting at $182, still. With possibly slowing growth amid high inflation, gold should not be getting sold here, at least in my view. But commodity stocks are being liquidated, in part due to AA FCX earnings selloffs and in part due to the general market selloff. 

However, if big, bad TSLA gives up all of its earnings gains into the weekend, I would take that as a sign the latest rally attempt by bulls in tech was a limp head-fake, with the end result being we make fresh bear market lows and see the plethora of longs who bet on a major bottom head for the exits next week. 

Let's see if bears mean business this time.