Powell Hunkers Down for Winter

Stocks are mostly meandering into the final hour of trading today, as bulls try to hold green from earlier. Although the Dow just flipped back red as I write this, plenty of stocks are struggling to stay afloat. 

The Fed Minutes released earlier this afternoon certainly added some pizazz to what was an already-wide range session. Of course, we have been in a relative narrow range since mid-December. But within that range the swings are growing more random and abrupt, perhaps indicative of a market itching to break said range imminently. 

The key here, as we noted with Members, is to not lose sight of the big picture that we remain in an overall bear market. Furthermore, Jay Powell seemed quite adamant in the Minutes that The Fed will think long and hard before pausing let alone pivoting to a dovish posture, despite how eager the market seems to want to price anything dovish in.

Indeed, 2023 may very well prove to be a year where The Fed simply stays on message and keeps on the hawkish path until the market finally has a meltdown of sorts about it. And only then, ironically, will a pivot actually be on the table. 

As for new plays, I have been extremely patient but am eyeing the "catch down" short ideas like GPI NKE SBUX ULTA and the like.