09Mar3:33 pmEST

...Until Something Breaks

The Fed can keep trying for a soft landing, and markets can keep rallying, "until something breaks," has been the rallying cry (literally) for bulls for a good while now.

But with the SIVB crash today and banks overall leading lower, as well as the small caps in the IWM, the issue is relevant as to whether now something has, in fact, been broken in the financial plumbing. 

While calling for another Lehman moment may be hyperbole, this still an overpriced market which has overall been complacent to various risks for months, even quarters, some would say even years. 

Headed into the jobs report tomorrow morning the market must immediately assess the broader risks of SIVB and banks getting caught up in things like crypto, VCs, and a higher rate world.

A cool jobs number may help give The Fed cover to only raise 25 bps, but I am not so sure that is a silver bullet now--Bad news may prove to be bad news, ultimately. 

Make an Example Out of Them Contagion Your Enthusiasm


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