The Last Gasp of Complacency

If you traded during the summer of 2011 then you know there was a moment right before all heck broke loose and we had a bonfire market swoon for a while there that stocks went down and so too did the VIX. Up until that point, we had a narrow market with capital congregated in a few obvious names but many weak sectors overall (sound familiar?). Of course, all of the 2011 analysis is easy with the benefit of hindsight, and we know the VIX then went ahead and exploded much higher. 

However, as it pertains to the current market we finally have some weakness in NVDA TSLA, and the Nasdaq at-large. 

And, yet, the VIX still lays dormant. 

But, again, that is most likely the very final stage of a long, drawn out rally in 2023 which has flipped once hardcore bears into bulls (or at least seen them postpone any hope for a new leg down until autumn if not 2024) and turned bulls into wild-eyed optimists about a supreme melt-up to 6000 on the S&P. 

The fear will come, especially once dip-buyers run into problems when they assume the current dip is just another in a long line of can't-miss spots--This time around we have tons of liquidity headwinds, even more expensive and crowded leaders, and a Fed Chair who has made tons of mistakes but still will not cut rates until we get a major market crisis first.